Archive for 'Web Analytics People'

Kevin Hillstrom is one smart dude. President of MineThatData, author of Online Marketing Simulations, and prolific contributor to the Twitter #measure channel. Kevin spends a huge amount of time in Twitter challenging web analysts to think and work harder on behalf of their “clients,” 140 characters at a time.

A few weeks ago I asked Kevin “what five practices learned in the offline data analytics world would you like to see web analytics professionals adopt?” The following contributed blog post has Kevin’s answers which are, unsurprisingly, awesome. Near the end Kevin says “The Web Analyst has the keys to the future of the business, so it is a manner of getting the Web Analyst to figure out how to use keys to unlock the future potential of a business.”

Brilliant. We are the future of business … so what future will we be helping to create?

Kevin Hillstrom, President, MineThatData

In 1998, I became the Circulation Director at Eddie Bauer. Back in those days, Eddie Bauer printed money, generating more than a hundred million dollars of pre-tax profit on an annual basis.

One of the ways that Eddie Bauer generated profit was through the use of discounts and promotions. If a customer failed to purchase over a six month period of time, Eddie Bauer applied a “20% off your order” offer. The customer had to use a special promotion code, in order to receive discounted merchandise.

We analyzed each promotion code, using “A/B” test panels. Customers were randomly selected from the population, and then assigned to one of two test panels. The first test panel received the promotion, the second test panel did not receive the promotion. We subtracted the difference between the promotion segment and the control segment, and ran a profit and loss statement against the difference.

In almost all cases, the segment receiving the promotion generated more profit than the control segment. In other words, it became a “best practice” to offer customers promotions and incentives at Eddie Bauer. Over the course of a five year period of time, the marketing calendar became saturated with promotions. In fact, it became hard to find an open window where we could add promotions!

Being a huge fan of “A/B” testing, I decided to try something different. I asked my circulation team to choose two customer groups at random from our housefile. One group would receive promotions for the next six months, if the customer was eligible to receive the promotion. The other group would not receive a single promotion for the next six months. At the end of the six month test period, we would determine which strategy yielded the most profit.

At the end of six months, we observed a surprising outcome. The test group that received no promotions spent the exact same amount of money that the group receiving all promotions spent. After calculating the profitability of each test group, it was obvious that Eddie Bauer was making a significant mistake. It appeared that we would lose, at most, five percent of total annual sales, if we backed off of our promotional strategy. Eddie Bauer would be significantly more profitable by minimizing the existing promotional strategy.

In 1999, we backed off of almost all of our housefile promotions. At the end of 1999, the website/catalog division enjoyed the most profitable year in the history of the business.

This experience shaped all of my subsequent analytical work.

Just because we have the tools to measure our activities in real-time doesn’t mean we are truly optimizing business results. In the Eddie Bauer example, we had the analytical tools to measure every single promotion we offered the customer, and we used existing best practices and “A/B” testing strategies. All of it, however, was wrong, costing us $26,000,000 of profit on an annual basis. Simply put, we were measuring “conversion rate”. What actually happened was that we “shifted conversions” out of non-promotional windows, into promotional windows! Had we measured non-promotional windows, we would have noticed that demand decreased.

So, by measuring customer behavior across a six month period of time, we made a significant change to business strategy, one that dramatically increased annual profit.

What does this have to do with Web Analytics?

The overwhelming majority of Web Analytics activity is focused on improving “conversion rate”. Our software tools are calibrated for easy analysis of events. Did a visitor do what we wanted the visitor to do? Did a promotion work? Did a search visitor from a long-tail keyword buy merchandise when they visited the website? All of these questions are easily answered by the Web Analytics expert, the expert simply analyzes an event to determine if the event yielded a favorable outcome.

Offline analytics experts (often called “Business Intelligence” professionals or “SAS Programmers” if they use SAS software to analyze data) frequently analyze business problems from a different perspective. They use whatever data is available, incomplete or comprehensive, to determine if the individual actions taken by a business over time cause a customer to become more loyal.

With that in mind, here are five offline practices I wish online analytics experts would adopt.

Practice #1 = Extend the Conversion Window: Instead of analyzing whether a customer converted within a single visit or session, it makes sense to extend the conversion window and learn whether the customer converted across a period of time. For instance, when I ran Database Marketing at Nordstrom, we learned that our best customers had a 5% conversion rate, when measured on the basis of individual visits, but our best customers nearly achieved a 100% conversion rate when combining website visits and store visits during a month. By extending the conversion window, we realized that we didn’t have website problems, instead, we had loyal customers who used our website as a tool in a multi-channel process.

Practice #2 = Measure Long-Term Value: Offline analytics practitioners want to know if a series of actions results in long-term profit. In other words, individual conversions are relatively meaningless if, over the course of a year, individual conversions do not yield incremental profit. This is essentially the “Eddie Bauer” example I mentioned at the start of this paper, we learned that individual conversions (customers purchasing via a promo code) yielded increased profit during the promotional period, but generated a loss when measured across a six month timeframe. A generation of Web Analytics experts were trained, largely because of software limitations, to analyze short-term business results, and have not developed the discipline to do what is right for a business across a six month or one year timeframe. Fortunately, Web Analytics practitioners are exceptionally bright, and are easily able to adapt to longer conversion windows.

Practice #3 = Comfort with Incomplete Data: I recently analyzed data for a retailer that was able to tie 70% of store transactions to a name/address. During my presentation, an Executive mentioned that my results must be inaccurate, because I was leaving 30% of the transactions out of my analysis. When I asked the Executive if it would be better to make decisions on incomplete data, or to simply not make any decisions at all until all data is complete and accurate, the Executive acknowledged that inferences from incomplete data are better than inaction caused by data uncertainty. Offline analysts have been dealing with incomplete multi-channel data for decades, and have become good at communicating the benefits and limitations of incomplete data to business leaders. The same opportunity exists for Web Analytics practitioners. Don’t hide from incomplete data! Instead, make confident decisions based on the data that is available, simply communicating what one can and cannot infer from incomplete data.

Practice #4 = Demonstrate What Happens to a Business Five Years From Now Based on Today’s Actions: Believe it or not, this is how I make a living. I use conditional probabilities to show what happens if customers evolve a certain way. Pretend a business had 100 customers in 2009, and 44 of the 100 customers purchase again during 2010. This business must find 56 new customers in 2010 to replace the customers lost during 2010. I can demonstrate what the business will look like in 2015, based on how well the business can retain existing customers or acquire new customers. This type of analysis is the exact opposite of “conversion rate analysis”, because we are looking at the long-term retention/acquisition dynamics that impact every single business. I find that CEOs and CFOs love this type of analysis, because for the first time, they have a window into the future, they actually get to see where the business is heading if things remain as they are today. Better yet, the CEO/CFO can go through “scenario planning” to identify ways to mitigate problems or to capitalize on favorable business trends. The Web Analytics practitioner has the data to do this type of analysis, it is simply a matter of tagging customers or shaping queries in a way that allows the analyst to make inferences that impact long-term customer value.

Practice #5 = Communicate Better: This probably applies to all analysts, not just Web Analytics experts. Executives are frequently called “HiPPOs” by the Web Analytics community, a term that refers to “Highest Paid Person’s Opinion”. The term can be used in a negative manner, suggesting that the Executive is choosing to not make decisions based on data but rather on opinion or gut feel or instinct or internal politics. I was a member of the Executive team at Nordstrom for more than six years, and I can honestly say that I made far more decisions based on opinion than I made based on sound data and analytics … and I am an analyst by trade!! Too often, the analytics community tells an incomplete story. Once, I witnessed an analytically minded individual who made a compelling argument, demonstrating that e-mail marketing had a better return on investment than catalog marketing. This analyst used the argument to suggest that the company shut down the catalog marketing division. On the surface, the argument made sense. Upon digging into the data a bit more, we learned that 75% of all e-mail addresses were acquired when a catalog shopper was placing an online order, so if we discontinued catalog marketing, we would cut off the source of future e-mail addresses. This is a case where the analyst failed to communicate in an appropriate manner, causing the Executive to not heed the advice of the analyst. Too often, analysts fail to put data and customer findings into a larger context. Total company profit, long-term customer profitability, total company staffing strategies and politics, multi-channel customer dynamics, and Executive goals and objectives all need to be taken into account by the analyst when communicating a data-driven story. When this is done well, the analyst becomes a surrogate member of the Executive team. When this is not done well, the analyst sometimes perceives the Executive to be a “HiPPO”.

These are the five areas I’d like to see Web Analytics experts evolve into. The Web Analyst has the keys to the future of the business, so it is a manner of getting the Web Analyst to figure out how to use keys to unlock the future potential of a business. Based on what I have witnessed during the past forty months of multi-channel consulting, I am very confident that Web Analytics practitioners can combine offline techniques with online analytics. The combination of offline techniques and online analytics yields a highly-valued analyst that Executives depend upon to make good business decisions!

Well folks, it’s that time of year again. The winds are dying down and the flowers have all started to bloom so it must be time to make our annual pilgrimage to San Jose to bask in the glory of Jim Sterne and the Emetrics Marketing Optimization Summit! As usual I will be there and have the honor of sharing a keynote slot with my long-time friend and uber-optimizer Bryan Eisenberg!

• Emetrics Keynote: Wednesday at 1:00 PM in the Grand Ballroom

Partner John Lovett will also be there, basking in his own glory on the heels of his Web Analytics Association victory … and taking the WAA’s new Certification test. I haven’t really had much time to think about the Certification yet but will be interested to hear what John and others taking the test have to say.

I also have the rare honor of presenting with Brett Crosby, Group Product Manager for Google Analytics and one of the nicest guys in the entire industry, hand’s down. Oddly he and I are presenting IMMEDIATELY AFTER his “What’s new from Google Analytics” pitch on Tuesday … but to compensate we’re gonna try something new and have a very loose “conversation” about web analytics that is more similar to an X Change mini-huddle than a traditional presentation.

• Talking Analyics: Tuesday at 2:00 PM at The Conversion Conference (co-located w/Emetrics)

Finally I will be sharing the stage at Web Analytics Wednesday with Adam Laughlin from the nonprofit Save the Children. We will be talking about our respective community education efforts — his “Web Analytics Without Borders” WAA initiative and our own Analysis Exchange. I will be making a few exciting announcements about The Analysis Exchange next Wednesday so if you cannot attend Web Analytics Wednesday please watch my blog or follow me on Twitter.

• Web Analytics Wednesday: Wednesday at 6:00 PM at the Fairmont in San Jose

That schedule again:

• Tuesday, 2:00 PM at The Conversion Conference with Brett Crosby (Google)
• Wednesday, 1:00 PM at Emetrics with Bryan Eisenberg (Emetrics Keynote)
• Wednesday, 6:00 PM at Web Analytics Wednesday (The Fairmont Hotel, Market Street Foyer)

Thanks to Coremetrics and SAS for their generous support of Web Analytics Wednesday at Emetrics, by the way. Great companies like these are what keep WAW events around the world free and open to everyone!

See you in San Jose!

If you are one of the thousands of people who have attended one of our Web Analytics Wednesday events over the past few years, well, thank you! Thank you for showing your support of the web analytics community, your local community, and the practice of web analytics in general. I had no idea that our execution of June’s idea would progress to near the point it has … touching so many people and providing a gateway to jobs, employees, and all kinds of new ideas.

That said, two challenges have emerged recently and I felt like a quick blog post that everyone could reference would be the best way to deal with each. In no particular order:

1. Web Analytics Wednesdays are designed to be a free event. It has come to my attention that some local chapters of WAW are charging people to attend events. In most (probably all actually) cases these fees are designed to offset the cost of food or drinks, but here’s the thing: we have tons of money for Web Analytics Wednesday and we can almost certainly get more if we need it! If you find yourself in the position of having to ask local members for $10 for an event … please please please email me directly and lets find you money! I am pretty creative, and the 2010 Global Sponsors have already donated very generously, so let me help you make a totally free event if at all possible, please!
2. Web Analytics Wednesdays need to be run thoughtfully when held in conjunction with Web Analytics Association events. This gets back to  the open-to-all atmosphere of Web Analytics Wednesday, but it has been brought to our attention that some WAA country hosts in Europe have been holding joint WAA + WAW events. This is excellent and wonderful, except if it happens at the expense of A) the global agreement between the WAA and Web Analytics Wednesday and B) the ability for anyone — WAA or not — to participate.

The second point merits additional explanation. Web Analytics Wednesday, as many of you are already aware, is an independent entity created by Web Analytics Demystified, not the Web Analytics Association. Because it is a “community event” many people mistakenly assume it is WAA but it is not and never has been. We maintain WAW as a private entity because A) we believe it needs to remain open to all, not just those folks able to justify and afford the Association’s $199 annual fees and B) honestly, it’s a lot easier to get financial support for these events as an independent entity.

To clarify this, a few years back June and I hammered out an agreement between the Association and WAW. Without boring you with the details, the agreement specifies that “Web Analytics Wednesday” is an independent brand, that all WAW registrations will occur on our web site and system, and that WAW will be open to all comers, not just WAA members. It’s an awesome agreement because it allows the Association access to WAW events around the globe without needing to have any infrastructure.

The agreement also totally, totally supports local WAA events that want to have a social function as well! If a WAA coordinator or country manager wants to have a “social event” after a sanctioned WAA event that requires registration they have two very simple options:

1. Call the event Web Analytics Wednesday, create the event on our platform, advertise the event for anyone and everyone who wants to attend, and ask people to sign up to participate at the official WAW web site;
2. Call the event anything other than “Web Analytics Wednesday”

Easy, huh?

All we are seeking to do is ensure that “Web Analytics Wednesday” continues to be known as a totally free event, open to all comers regardless of financial disposition and willingness to support any association, vendor, or technology. And to that end we are working as hard as possible to provide resources — financial and otherwise — to event planners across the globe, working with great organizations like the WAA, and working with the brilliant and wonderful WAW hosts who have made Web Analytics Wednesday the amazing event it is.

Personally I’m looking forward to getting to know the new WAA Executive Director and working to ensure bidirectional compliance with the long-standing agreement between WAA and WAW. I know the agreement has the board’s support, and we hope the spirit of the agreement continues to maintain the community’s support as well.

I welcome questions, comments, and concerns, and with the Association’s permission I am happy to provide or publish a copy of the agreement between WAA and WAW (but do need the Association’s permission as it is a valid legal document.)

Recently Google published the results of a Forrester Research study they had commissioned (PDF) to help the broader market understand the use and adoption of free web analytics solution.  Google should be applauded for commissioning Forrester to conduct this work, especially given the quality of the research and the level of insights provided.  Without a doubt, free solutions like Google Analytics and Yahoo Web Analytics are having an impact on our industry and driving change in ways few of us ever imagined.

I really did enjoy the Forrester report, primarily because the author (John Lovett) managed to surface totally new data.  When he first told me that over half of Enterprise businesses were using free solutions I have to admit I didn’t believe him.  In a way I still don’t, but perhaps that’s only because I work with a slightly different sample than he presents.  Regardless, John’s report paints a picture of an increasingly challenging market for companies selling web analytics and a new sophistication among end users.

Speaking of sophistication, there are a few points in the report that I question, and since I have pretty good luck getting feedback from readers on big picture stories I figured I’d bring them up here in the blog.  Before I do I want to emphasize that I am not questioning Forrester or John’s work—I am merely trying to explore some data that I find contrary to my own experience in this public forum.  To this end I pose a handful of questions that I would love to discuss either openly in comments or via email.

The first point I question is the observation in Figure 3 that 70% of companies report having a “well-defined analytics strategy.”  Two years ago my own research found that fewer than 10% of companies worldwide had a well-defined strategy for web analytics.  Last year Econsultancy reported that only 18% of the companies in their sample had a strategy for analytics.  To jump from these low numbers to the majority of Enterprises just doesn’t square with my general experience in the industry.

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Remember, the implication of this data point is that 70% of all companies having more than 1,000 employees have a “well-defined analytics strategy.”  According to a 2004 report from the U.S. Census Bureau there were just over 12,000 companies in the U.S. with more than 1,000 employees.  Without assuming any growth between 2004 and 2009, Forrester’s 70% figure would result in over 8,500 companies in the U.S. that have a “well-defined” strategy for web analytics. Does that sound right to you?

Consider that the combined customer count for Omniture, WebTrends, Coremetrics, and Unica combined in the U.S. doesn’t even add up to 8,500 companies.  Even if you use the more conservative 13% who “strongly agree” with Forrester’s statement you end up with over 1,500 U.S. companies.  I may suffer from sample bias, but personally I can barely think of 150 companies that I would identify as having any strategy for web analytics, much less a “well-defined” one.

Most companies I talk to have the beginnings of an over-arching strategy—they’ve realized the need for people and are beginning to reduce their general reliance on click-stream data alone.  But given that I think about this topic from time to time, I think a “well-defined” strategy for web analytics takes into account multiple integrated technologies, appropriate staffing, and well thought-out business and knowledge processes for putting their technology and staff to work.  What does the phrase “well-defined strategy” imply to you?

Similarly, if 60% of companies truly believed that “investments in Web analytics people are more valuable than investments in Web analytics technology” there would be THOUSANDS of practitioners employed in the U.S. alone.  But again, every conference, every meeting, every conference call, and every other data point suggests that the need for people in web analytics is still an emerging need.  Hell, Emetrics in San Jose earlier this year barely drew 200 actual practitioners by my count.  How many web analytics practitioners do you think there are in the United States?

Same problem with the rest of the responses to Figure 3 on web analytics as a “technology we cannot do without” (75%) and the significance of the role web analytics plays in driving decisions (71%).  Perhaps I’m talking to entirely the wrong people, perhaps I’m interpreting these data wrong, and perhaps I’ve gone flat-out crazy, but these responses just don’t match my personal understanding and experience in the web analytics industry.

This issue of data that simply does not make sense, while not universally manifest in the report, manifests elsewhere as well. For example, Figure 8 reports on the percentage of application used segmented by fee and free tools:

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When I look at these responses and see that 63 percent of respondents using fee-based tools and 50 percent of respondents using free tools claim to be effectively using more than half the available functionality, again I find myself scratching my head. As this data appears to speak to the general sophistication of use of analytics I went back and looked at Dennis Mortensen’s quantitative study of how IndexTools was being used around the world.

Dennis reports that fewer than 10% of his customers were using even the most basic “advanced” features in web analytics (report customization) and that fewer that 4% of his customers (on average) are making any “advanced” use of the IndexTools application. While this dataset is somewhat biased towards European companies who I believe, on average, to be somewhat behind their U.S. counterparts it does provide an objective view in how web analytics are used that seems to directly contradict the self-reported responses in Forrester’s figure 8.

Clearly there is a gap between the responses John collected and the current state of the web analytics market.  Since John is a very smart guy I know part of his rebuttal will include the observation that he surveyed people directly responsible for web analytics (see Forrester’s methodology) and that people in general have a tendency towards positivism. Trust me, my son is the most handsome little boy ever born and my daughter’s beauty is only matched by that of Aphrodite … same for your kids, right?

Given the difficulty associated with gathering truly objective data regarding the use of web analytics, this type of self-reported data is usually what we have to go on.  While Omniture, WebTrends, Coremetrics, and Unica all have the fundamental capability to report data similar to that provided by Mr. Mortensen, it may not be in their best interests to expose underwhelming adoption and unsophisticated use (if that is what the analysis uncovered.)  Ultimately we’re forced to accept these self-reported responses and  then reconcile them against our own views, which is why I’m asking my readers what they think about the data Forrester is reporting!

Regarding these self-reported attitudinal responses on how web analytics is used strategically, perhaps the truth is found in the companies who “strongly agree” with John’s statements.  If we apply this lens, as opposed to the more optimistic view, we get the following:

• 17% of companies recognize that web analytics is a technology they cannot live without;
• Web analytics plays a significant role in driving decisions at 12% of companies;
• 13% of companies have a well-defined web analytics strategy;
• 9% of companies recognize that investments in people are more valuable than investments in technology

These numbers start to make a lot more sense to me.  Likely the truth, as with so much in our industry, lies somewhere in between, but I would love to hear what you think about these adjusted numbers.  Do the lower numbers make more sense to you, or do you agree with John’s more optimistic assessment?

Unfortunately if the lower numbers are correct the implication is that despite the incredibly hard work that companies, consultants, and industry thought-leaders around the world have done for years we still have an incredibly long way to go before web analytics is recognized as the valuable business practice that you all know it can be!

Regardless I want to state that I do not disagree at all with the fundamental thesis in this report, that “free” is creating a whole new level of interest in web analytics and that, given proper consideration, free is an excellent alternative to paid solutions.  Lacking clear strategy and resources, too many companies have wasted too much money on paid solutions for free to not be compelling.  Thanks to the dedication of the Google and Yahoo teams, the world now has access to great applications that are in some regards more compelling than fee-based alternatives.

While I may not have said this a few years ago, today I honestly do believe that “free” is a viable and appropriate alternative to fee-based solutions. While not appropriate in every situation, it is irresponsible to suggest that any company not willing to fully engage in web analytics should pay for ongoing services and support. Given advances from Google and the availability of Yahoo Web Analytics, any motivated company large or small now has access to a wealth of data that can be translated into information, insights, and recommendations.

Conversely I agree with John (and Jim, and almost ever thought leader I respect) who states that you need to “prioritize your business needs and culture for analytics first and then evaluate the tools.”  This goes back to the fundamental value proposition at Web Analytics Demystified: It’s not the tools you use but how you use them. If you’re not invested in developing and executing a clearly defined strategy for digital measurement, you may as well be grepping your log files.

I would love your feedback on this post, either directly in comments or via email. Thanks again to the folks at Google for making this awesome research freely available and to John Lovett for shedding light on this incredibly important aspect of our sector.  Remember: we are analysts—our jobs are to ask hard questions and then ask even harder ones!

Following up my interview with Bill Gassman a few weeks ago I realized that I would be remiss if I didn’t build on Forrester’s recent Web Analytics Wave report with an interview with John Lovett. John, like Bill, totally, totally understands the web analytics industry, and in that understanding is able to clarify the marketplace in a way few others can. Don’t believe me? Check out his response to possibly the worst article about web analytics, ever. Measured, polite, even complimentary … that’s John.

I am personally honored that John accepted my invitation to return to the X Change this year and both lead the huddle on “Industry Standards (or a lack thereof)” and co-lead a huddle on technology with Bill Gassman. If you haven’t met John personally, and if you are able to join us at the X Change, I strongly recommend you make a point of introducing yourself to him.

Finally, before my questions and John’s answers, I wanted to point out how incredibly deft Mr. Lovett really is: in response to a high-and-hard fastball question about “which vendor is really the best,” John knocked the ball clear out of the park with his answer: none of them. I’ll let you read the rest for yourself …

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Your recent Wave report really emphasized a lot of conventional wisdom about the web analytics vendors but had some surprises for folks.  What surprised YOU the most about the Wave results?

Well Eric, I like to say that surprises are for birthdays and not for business. So in terms of actual surprises, there weren’t any big bombshells for me. I was however pleased that the vendors demonstrated innovation in a number of areas (like social media measurement) and that despite my attempts to develop extremely challenging criteria, the vendors continue to improve year over year.

One comment people have made to me is that they question the validity of comparing fee and free solutions in a single matrix due to the fundamental differences in their business model.  How would (or do) you respond to that challenge?

That’s preposterous! I respond by saying that it’s negligent not to compare free vs. fee based solutions. In today’s economic environment if you’re not watching expenses by understanding the cost to benefit ratio of your Web analytics solution, you are acting irresponsibly. Free tools have merit for many organizations as both primary and secondary tools, while fee based solutions are more appropriate for others based on their capabilities. Organizations must do their diligence to understand what they need in a Web analytics solution to decide what’s right for them, which is really the insight the Wave attempts to provide.

I asked Bill Gassman from Gartner a variation on this question recently, but do you now or see in the near future a situation where you as a Forrester analyst are advising your clients to actively consider these free solutions in addition to “traditional” web analytics solutions from Omniture, Coremetrics, and Unica?  As a follow-up, how do you see free tools impacting the market in the next 12 to 24 months?

I advocate that a single system for measurement is always the best way to go, yet recognize that this isn’t always feasible. Duality of Web analytics tools is a reality for myriad reasons. Thus, company’s need to manage their data dissemination practices to ensure comprehension and mitigate doubt. This is tricky, but certainly possible. I often help clients determine which solution is best suited to meet their needs and financial implications are always a part of that discussion.

With regard to how free tools will impact the market: we are just witnessing the beginning of the incoming tide on this one. By this I mean that “free” will continue to disrupt the market by placing pressure for improvement on all vendors. Just look at the recent Webtrends product upgrade announcement – the majority of press around it cited a “look out Google Analytics” slant. Why the comparison…they’re worried! Fee-based vendors have even more to fear now that Yahoo! Web Analytics opened up its partner program.

Another comment I hear about the Wave results, and forgive me this, is that they’re lame because they do nothing to differentiate the “market leaders” who appear as a tight cluster.  The evidence cited is that all four vendors issued press releases declaring their “market leadership” which appears technically correct based on the Wave but as the Highlander said, “There can be only one.”  First, how do you respond to this and second, who is the real market leader in web analytics?

Here’s the dirty little secret – the real market leader is the wildly talented Web analytics practitioner. It’s not the tools that differentiate it’s the craftsman. Any company that believes the Web analytic technology alone will make them incredibly successful is delusional or just plain out of touch. There is no get rich quick scheme here. Each of the leading vendors on the Wave offers a highly customized solution that can be tricked-out to meet nearly anyone’s individual needs. But this takes a great deal of work. For those organizations that are looking for the far-and-away winner in this technology category, guess what: the tools will only get you so far – you need talented people to really make it happen.

Rumors are that Omniture has a bunch of “800 lb gorillas” hanging in their offices right now.  Clearly they’re proud of their position, but last quarters results highlighted that there are clear risks to their business that are beginning to manifest.  What do you think are the greatest risks to Omniture’s business over the next 18 months?

Well, I don’t buy into rumors and sure don’t know where I left my crystal ball. But things are tough all over. As I stated earlier, free solutions are threatening all fee-based vendors and forcing them to work harder. I can tell you that measurement technologies are an imperative for executing on digital marketing endeavors. Solutions like Omniture’s, Webtrends’, Coremetrics’, Unica’s and everyone else’s will continue to play an important role in the evolution of organizations conducting business online. I believe that Web analytics is increasingly becoming an integrated service and expect to see things evolve to easier access to data through new and alternative means. The leading vendors, including Omniture, will play a role in this evolution.

What’s your taken on the current hype cycle around “open”?  Omniture bangs the Genesis drum, Coremetrics connects, and now WebTrends appears to have decided that “open” will be the foundation of their future success (or lack thereof) … but some people think that “open” is a check-box requirement, not a competitive differentiator.  What do you think?

Open is not a feature, it’s a philosophy. The ability to get data into and out of a Web analytics solution is the crux of the issue and leading vendors facilitate this through bi-directional API’s, other import and export functions and data dissemination capabilities. Webtrends is currently doing this as well as anyone, but “open” also means talking to your customers about development plans, listening to criticism and demonstrating a willingness to change. These qualities aren’t unique to Webtrends, they’re characteristics that all vendors should exhibit. Webtrends is just marketing around them and if that’s causing people to want open, then it appears to be working.

As a previous attendee to the X Change what do you like best about the conference and what would you like to see us change this year or next?

I appreciate the intimate conversational format of X Change. The huddles really facilitate deep thought, controversial leeway and provocative discussion. As someone who attends a number of conferences, it is refreshing to engage in dialogue with individuals who are passionate about what they do and to initiate a true collaborative thinking environment. As far as change goes, I really hope to be able to guide the huddles that I’m leading toward resolution. Within our industry, all too often we surface problems and issues without identifying solutions. I’ve taken your challenge to heart and hope to walk away with some tangible results from my huddles.

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John will be joining Bill Gassman, Gary Angel, June Dershewitz, and over 100 expert users, consultants, and vendors at the 2009 X Change conference in San Francisco on September 9, 10, and 11. Registration is currently underway and we’d love to have you join us! For more information please visit:

http://www.xchangeconference.com